Nationwide Poll towards snap elections in Greece -- September 12, 2015
Survey and Analysis of Results
Analysis by Dimitris Rapidis and Mario Schmidt
One week before snap elections in Greece, a big part of the electorate remains undecided. It is the first time during the last 15 years that it is really hard to predict the turnout, not only for the performance of the first party, but also for the rest of the parties.
Our tracking polls during the last couple of weeks show a steady advancement of Syriza with New Democracy following behind. The first party preserves a considerable margin from the second; a margin that can either widen or shorten. Still unclear how undecided voters will behave and whether they will move towards Syriza or New Democracy. Certain enough that most of undecided voters will chose in front of ballot box, as quality figures below strongly suggest.
Disappointment, boredom, indifference
59% of respondents feel certain that Syriza will win elections next Sunday. Similarly the party leader Tsipras is preferred as PM securing a 24% margin comparing to New Democracy leader Meimarakis. Interesting enough, there is a 17% that prefers another person to govern Greece, as well as 21% feeling both Tsipras and Meimarakis are unsuitable for this position. The clear advantage of Syriza in win projection might positively affect the party's final performance.
Nonetheless, 68% of respondents are unsatisfied with the proposals and programs of all political leaders, referring to those participated in the televised debate last Wednesday. This is a clear message to the political establishment that, to a certain degree, might be reflected in two ways: a. increasing abstention rates; b. support over smaller parties, whether these ones were represented in the previous Parliament or not.
Similarly, more than 1/2 believes that political stability will not be the case after elections. This is an ever growing sentiment that is affected by a number of factors: the fragmentation of the political landscape; the blurry political programs of the parties; the confusion over the formation of a possible coalition government; the ideological differences between Syriza and the so-called "pro European parties", especially after the agreement of the previous government over a new bailout deal; the role minor parties will play the day after elections (i.e. mainly Popular Unity, To Potami, PASOK).
As of the voting intention, Syriza has secured a clear distance from New Democracy so far. Undecided voters' rate remains very high, and with the current performance of the parties it is very difficult to form a steady (i.e. in numbers and composition) coalition government.
Our estimation
Given the current results and the tracking polls, Syriza seems to secure a win. Many parties will struggle for the third place, whereas we cannot exclude an outsider claiming its place in the next Parliament (i.e. ANEL; Union of Centrists). Again, as we have repeatedly pointed out during the past weeks, many things can change. From our analysis, only one thing is certain: 6/10 undecided voters will finally decide in front of the ballot box.
September 12, 2015